Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting
Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for integrating solar and wind generation into modern power systems, where operators must weigh risk rather than act on point forecasts alone. Existing probabilistic methods, however, often either lack finite-sample validity or require per-site recalibration, so a single model rarely transfers across the diverse climates of a dispersed generation fleet. This paper proposes a heteroscedastic, asymmetric, group-conditional split-conformal framework built on a bootstrap-diverse XGBoost ensemble, producing prediction intervals that adapt in width to local difficulty while retaining distribution-free coverage guarantees. A single fixed specifica...
| Authors | Shreedhar Gangwar, Abhinav Bains, Banalaxmi Brahma |
|---|---|
| Primary category | stat.AP |
| Published | 13 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 13 July 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.