Probabilistic Low-Voltage Peak Load Forecasting with Time Series Foundation Models Evaluated on Application-Oriented Metrics
Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current forecasting methods require significant manual effort, often lack uncertainty estimation and proper peak prediction, and they are often not adequately evaluated in terms of grid requirements. In the present study, we provide an extensive evaluation of short-term net load forecasts of 200 real-world low-voltage feeders with a focus on the rapidly evolving time series foundation models. Our study compares Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS to six baseline models and demonstrates superior performance, in particular...
| Authors | Benedikt Kaas, Manuel Treutlein, Hannes Benedikt Gerber et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 2 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 2 July 2026 |
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