How Early Is Early Enough? Design-Dependent Observation-Window Sufficiency in Subscription Churn Prediction
How many days of early behavior suffice for subscription churn prediction? In the public KKBox dataset, the early indicator of churn is typically an indicator of someone's contract status; however, when looking in the heavily churned manual-renewal segment, having access to early behavior creates a substantial increase in prediction for that specific segment (PR +0.10 at 120 days). A nine-window sufficiency curve shows diminishing returns; descriptive inflection detectors place a knee between 30 and 120 days depending on the metric and model class. Stress-testing over three cohort/task designs shows that this curve is singular to the design being tested; for example, in our test with a mo...
| Authors | Xiao Han, Yao Xiao, Chenyu Wu et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 1 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 21 September 2026 |
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