Estimating Supply Incrementality in Two-sided Marketplaces: A Causal Machine Learning Approach
In two-sided marketplaces with heterogeneous products, it is important to understand the causal relationship between additional supply and marketplace outcomes, such as the total quantity transacted or transaction value in the marketplace. This paper studies a causal machine learning approach to estimating this relationship across product segments. We use the Airbnb marketplace as an example, focusing on the impact of additional listing supply on total bookings, but the methodology applies to other two-sided marketplaces. Our approach combines double/debiased machine learning with a hierarchical Bayesian framework that leverages pre-existing knowledge as priors. We construct tractable and...
| Authors | Yufei Wu, Daniel Schmierer, Dan Zylberglejd |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 30 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 30 June 2026 |
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