Conditional Tropical Cyclogenesis Rates via Rare-Event Sampling in a Neural Weather Emulator
We couple Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), a non-equilibrium rare-event technique from statistical mechanics, to a neural weather emulator (SDL-WXFormer, 1° grid spacing) to estimate conditional tropical cyclogenesis rates, or how often a tropical cyclone achieves a hurricane-level central pressure, without modifying model dynamics. Tropical cyclogenesis rates vary by orders of magnitude across regimes, yet direct ensemble sampling cannot resolve this variability at operationally feasible ensemble sizes. FFS decomposes the rare disturbance to mature cyclone intensification path into a flux through an initial interface pressure and a product of conditional crossing probabilities across four in...
| Authors | John S. Schreck, William Chapman, Charlie Becker et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | physics.ao-ph |
| Published | 29 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 29 June 2026 |
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