A Transferable Learned Temporal Prior for Transmission Reconstruction and Decision-Relevant Uncertainty in Real Outbreak Labels
Reconstructing who infected whom often relies on case timing and published transmission links. However, two important questions remain: can a temporal pattern learned from other diseases transfer to a new outbreak, and how reliable are the transmission links used as ground truth? We learned a temporal prior from eleven disease groups using logistic regression. The model was locked before any target-outbreak data were accessed and was then tested without refitting on 29 Andes virus (ANDV) parent-ranking tasks. The locked prior achieved a mean reciprocal rank (MRR) of 0.571, compared with 0.274 for the strongest fair source-trained temporal baseline (permutation p<0.001). Its Top-1 accuracy...
| Authors | Md Ahsan Karim |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 29 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 16 September 2026 |
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