Uncovering Salience-Driven Dynamics in Consumer Confidence with Generative Social Simulation
Consumer confidence is typically modeled as a persistent macroeconomic index, yet its movements arise from households that interpret economic information through heterogeneous constraints, exposures, prior beliefs, and attention. We introduce ConsumerSim, a generative Human--Environment response framework that reconstructs Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dynamics from a microdata-calibrated synthetic population, time-stamped macroeconomic, financial, policy, and news signals, survey-like response generation, post-stratified belief expansion, and behavioral inertia alignment. Across U.S., EU27, and Japanese official CCI target series, ConsumerSim ranks first among persistence, time-series,...
| Authors | Yixu Huang, Yunlu Yin, Jiayu Lin et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.CY |
| Published | 29 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 29 June 2026 |
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