Rethinking Training & Inference for Forecasting: Linking Winner-Take-All back to GMMs
Trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving has advanced rapidly, yet representative models often produce uninformative posteriors over forecast modes, causing problems for mode pruning. We trace this to a modeling-training mismatch: forecasters are typically modeled as conditional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) but trained with a winner-take-all (WTA) loss that assigns each sample to its nearest mode. We argue that this K-means-like hard assignment (one-hot), while preventing mode collapse, is the source of uninformative mode probabilities: it over-segments the trajectory space, ignores relatedness among nearby modes, and yields assignment instability under small perturbations. Guided ...
| Authors | Qiyuan Wu, Katie Z Luo, Bharath Hariharan et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 24 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 24 June 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.