Hypothesis-Driven Skill Optimization for LLM Agents

External skills can improve action-oriented LLM agents without changing model weights, but persistent skill updates are risky when they are distilled from sparse or noisy trajectories. A plausible reflection may encode a useful procedure, a spurious shortcut, or a rule that the target executor cannot reliably follow. We propose Hypothesis-Driven Skill Optimization (HDSO), a train-free framework in which both the skill curator and the agent executor are frozen inference endpoints. The curator observes executor traces, proposes a falsifiable hypothesis with an explicit validation plan, instantiates the hypothesis as a candidate skill package, validates the package through paired control/tre...

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