Continuous-Time Probabilistic Correctors for Uncertainty-Aware Physics-Based Spacecraft Trajectory Forecasting
Long-horizon spacecraft trajectory forecasting suffers from error accumulation due to the absence of corrective observations in the forecast regime, making reliable uncertainty estimation crucial for safety-critical decision-making such as space domain awareness and conjunction assessment. While high-fidelity physics-based orbit propagators provide accurate deterministic forecasts, they typically lack calibrated uncertainty estimates over long horizons. We introduce a Predictor--Corrector framework in which a physics-based continuous-time $\textit{deterministic}$ forecaster is augmented with a learned continuous-time $\textit{probabilistic}$ Corrector that models forecast errors. The prop...
| Authors | Muhammad Bilal Shahid, Zhanhong Jiang, Soumik Sarkar et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 19 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 19 June 2026 |
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