Simulated Customers Never Walk Away: Decision Fidelity of LLM User Simulators Measured Against Real Purchase Outcomes

LLM-as-user-simulation has become core infrastructure for conversational AI: agent benchmarks (tau-bench), training pipelines, and a growing body of fidelity studies all rely on LLMs role-playing the human side of dialogue. Existing frameworks measure communicative fidelity -- whether simulators talk like humans -- against ground truth from paid participants role-playing assigned goals. We argue this has a structural blind spot: when the goal is assigned, the user's willingness is exogenous, so no framework can test whether simulators make decisions like real users whose motivation is endogenous, latent, and decaying. We introduce decision fidelity -- whether a simulated population reprod...

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