ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark
Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score. We introduce ForecastBench-Sim, a simulated-world forecasting benchmark built on game rollouts from Freeciv, a turn-based strategy game modelled on the Civilization series. Forecasters receive a fixed world report (a structured snapshot of the current game state) and answer questions about hidden future states; the benchmark then continues the simulation and scores forecasts. Because the world is simulated, the same setup can generate continuous or binary forecasting questions at arbitra...
| Authors | Jaeho Lee, Nick Merrill, Ezra Karger |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.AI |
| Published | 17 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 17 June 2026 |
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