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Paper · arXiv

ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting

Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights. However, current architectures do not inherently provide such information. Specifically, guidance is needed on how current conditions must be modified to shift from a predicted outcome to a desired future scenario. Counterfactual explanations provide a natural framework for this task, as they represent minimal input changes that alter the model's prediction, indicating when and how intervention is required. Existing approaches rely on instance-wise optimization, leading to inconsistency across instances, high computational costs, and limited applicability i...

AuthorsJan Voets, Hasan Tercan, Tobias Meisen et al.
Primary categorycs.LG
Published16 June 2026
Last updated at source16 June 2026
cs.LG
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