Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing
New York City implemented the nation's first cordon-based congestion pricing program in January 2025, providing an opportunity to evaluate how system-wide urban mobility responds to large-scale pricing interventions. Because such policies generate spillovers across modes and locations, credible control groups are difficult to construct. We address this challenge using time series foundation models to generate probabilistic counterfactual demand forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. Applying this framework to bus, subway, and aggregate trip volume data, we find that post-policy bus and subway ridership increased significantly relative to expected no-policy demand, while overall travel dem...
| Authors | Donghang Li, Dingyi Zhuang, Yunlin Li et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | physics.soc-ph |
| Published | 16 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 16 June 2026 |
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