Bayesian Inference and Decision Audits for Public Archives of Frontier AI Evaluations
Public AI evaluations are often read as terminal leaderboards, yet the underlying evidence is a selective time series shaped by reporting rules, benchmark revisions, and missingness. Repeated public archives for LiveBench and Open LLM Leaderboard v2 serve as the primary longitudinal record; LMArena provides a preference stress test; and GAIA and tau-bench contribute limited agentic pilots. Together, these archives instantiate a Bayesian inference problem: under a fixed reporting convention, one constructed terminal-only example over $1{,}000$ systems is compatible with two pre-terminal histories, yielding times of $23.03$ or $75.13$ to reach within $0.05$ of the ceiling under the same ter...
| Authors | Yanan Long |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.AI |
| Published | 15 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 15 June 2026 |
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