Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior
As LLM agents proliferate in prediction markets and collective decision-making, they risk a cognitive monoculture: agents built on shared foundation models produce correlated forecasts, and recent measurement finds frontier-model errors correlated at r ~ 0.77. We ask whether human cognitive diversity can be recovered from behavior and transferred to LLM agents. Nous extracts a structured eight-dimension behavioral profile from real Polymarket trading activity and injects it into agents through prompts. Our central finding is a dissociation between the two halves of that pipeline. Extraction works, partially: across 100 wallets, 8 of 14 parameters are temporally stable (split-half ICC >= 0...
| Authors | Haowei Qian |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.AI |
| Published | 11 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 11 June 2026 |
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