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Paper · arXiv

AI Sovereignty: A Qualitative Model of Strategic Competition as AI Becomes an Instrument of National Power

AI sovereignty is the extent to which a nation independently controls its artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The race toward ever-more-sophisticated frontier AI models is of increasing strategic importance, with nations considering how AI might improve their economic situations, competitive advantage, and overall national power. However, the costs of AI sovereignty are enormous, and we lack definitions and conceptual models to navigate evolving AI sovereignty dynamics. We address this gap with definitions relevant to AI sovereignty, along with a first-of-its-kind qualitative model that incorporates micro, meso, and macro contributors. Model-based qualitative forecasts highlight co...

AuthorsTimothy Clancy, Asmeret Naugle
Primary categorycs.CY
Published5 June 2026
Last updated at source5 June 2026
cs.CYcs.AI
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