The Confidence Shortcut: A Reasoning Failure Mode of Masked Diffusion Models

Chain-of-thought reasoning helps autoregressive models solve complex problems by generating intermediate steps that support later predictions. Masked diffusion models (MDMs) offer a similar opportunity through arbitrary-order generation: they can ideally reveal intermediate results along logical dependencies. In practice, however, standard decoding simply prioritizes high-confidence tokens, which need not align with this dependency order. We identify this discrepancy as the \emph{confidence shortcut}: models commit with high certainty to plausible tokens while neglecting long-range dependencies. In multi-digit addition, models predict higher-order digits without properly tracking carries ...

<iframe src="https://silytics.si/embed/item/e7a03ff5-4d50-40af-bbe9-a29861240f0b" width="420" height="190" style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="Silytics entry"></iframe>

Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.