High Performance, Low Reliability: Uncertainty Benchmarking for Tabular Foundation Models
Recent Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art predictive performance, often surpassing Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs). However, the trustworthiness of these models, particularly their uncertainty quantification, has been largely overlooked. We investigate this gap through an extensive study comparing TFMs, GBDTs, and classical baselines on the 112 datasets of the TALENT benchmark. Our results reveal a performance-uncertainty trade-off: although TFMs achieve the highest predictive performance, measured by AUC, they exhibit lower conditional coverage under conformal prediction, measured by SSCS, compared to GBDTs. Complementary experiments on synthetic ...
| Authors | José Lucas De Melo Costa, Fabrice Popineau, Arpad Rimmel et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 27 May 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 27 May 2026 |
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