Aurora Hunter: A Two-Stage Framework for Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting
Aurora visibility at a given location requires two physically distinct conditions to hold at once: aurora occurring overhead, governed by solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, and observing conditions that permit detection, governed by cloud cover and moonlight. Approaches that conflate the two weaken the space-weather signal and limit cross-site generalizability. We develop Aurora Hunter, a two-stage cascade that separates occurrence prediction from observing-condition assessment. Stage 1 uses 43 physics-driven features to predict P(aurora identifiable in all-sky images) via gradient-boosted trees trained on joint Tromso+Kiruna data (about 16,600 hours, 2015-2023). Stage 2 models P(unobscur...
| Authors | Zongyuan Ge, Chenwaner Zhang, Haoyang Li et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | physics.space-ph |
| Published | 21 May 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 21 September 2026 |
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