Evaluating Large Language Models as Live Strategic Agents: Provider Performance, Hybrid Decomposition, and Operational Gaps in Timed Risk Play

Static benchmarks capture only part of how large language models behave in practice. Real systems place models inside repeated loops with time limits, formatting constraints, and failure modes. We study this setting in a timed multi-phase Risk environment with explicit victory targets and repeated planning and execution cycles. In a replicated 32-game cross-provider championship under frozen rules, gemini-3.1-pro-preview won 20 of 32 games against gpt-5.1, claude-opus-4-7, and kimi-k2.6, and the pooled winner distribution differs strongly from an equal-strength null (p approx 1.5 x 10^-5). We then separate planning from execution by standardizing execution on a cheaper Gemini Flash scaffo...

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