A 10,000-Year Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Catalog with Wind-Dependent Track Transitions (WHITS)
Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS, the Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator, a non-parametric semi-Markov model that generates a 10,000-year global synthetic catalog of tropical cyclone tracks. WHITS builds new storms by resampling variable-length segments of historical tracks, with segment choices conditioned on local wind speed, location, storm age, and forward motion. This structure preserves both the statistical grounding of the historical record and a form of system memory along realized storm pathways. The...
| Authors | Jennifer Nakamura, Upmanu Lall |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 19 May 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 5 July 2026 |
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