SpikeProphecy: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Autoregressive Neural Population Forecasting
Neural population models, which predict the joint firing of many simultaneously recorded neurons forward in time, are typically evaluated by a single aggregate Pearson correlation $r$ between predicted and actual spike counts, a number that masks critical structure. We argue that how we evaluate spike forecasting matters as much as what we build, and introduce SpikeProphecy, the first large-scale benchmark for causal, autoregressive spike-count forecasting on real electrophysiology recordings. Our core contribution is a population metric decomposition that separates aggregate performance into temporal fidelity, spatial pattern accuracy, and magnitude-invariant alignment. The decomposition...
| Authors | John R. Minnick, Jinghui Geng, Kamran Hussain et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | q-bio.NC |
| Published | 13 May 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 13 May 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.