Matrix-Decoupled Concentration for Autoregressive Sequences: Dimension-Free Guarantees for Sparse Long-Context Rewards

Sequence-level evaluations in autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) rely on highly dependent token generation. Establishing tight concentration bounds for these processes remains a challenge due to two fundamental bottlenecks in existing frameworks: (i) classical inequalities typically separate dependency structures from target sensitivities, leading to a scalar collapse that inflates the variance proxy to a suboptimal $\mathcal{O}(N)$ for sparse terminal rewards; (ii) conversely, while certain spatial methods achieve tighter bounds, they lack the strictly causal filtration required by sequential generation, rendering them inapplicable to the autoregressive setting. To resolve both ...

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