SHIFT: Robust Double Machine Learning for Average Dose-Response Functions under Heavy-Tailed Contamination

Double-machine-learning pipelines for the Average Dose-Response Function rely on kernel-weighted local-linear smoothers, which inherit unbounded functional influence: a single outlier within a kernel window biases the curve across the entire window. We introduce SHIFT (Self-calibrated Heavy-tail Inlier-Fit with Tempering), a robust DML estimator combining cross-fit nuisance orthogonalization with a kernel-local Welsch-loss second stage optimized by Graduated Non-Convexity, and -- the principal design choice -- a defensive OLS refit whose inlier cutoff is scaled by post-GNC residual MAD rather than the raw-outcome MAD. On a localized-contamination stress test at $p=0.25$ this design choice...

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