Auditing Marketing Budget Allocation with Hindsight Regret
Organizations routinely make strategic budget allocations under operational constraints, but often lack a principled way to assess whether realized allocations were close to the best feasible choices in hindsight. We present a retrospective auditing framework based on hindsight regret, defined as the opportunity cost of the realized allocation relative to a constraint-faithful benchmark under the same budget and stability guardrails. The framework estimates regime-specific spend--response functions from historical logs, computes feasible hindsight allocations via constrained optimization, and propagates uncertainty through Monte Carlo evaluation to produce regret distributions, expected l...
| Authors | Nilavra Pathak, Olivier Jeunen, Eric Lambert |
|---|---|
| Primary category | econ.EM |
| Published | 28 April 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 30 April 2026 |
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