Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications
In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy. We synthesize diverse forecasting approaches, document significant limitations in existing methods, and propose a research agenda for developing more-robust forecasting infrastructure. The report does not endorse a specific forecast or scenario but rather provides a framework for interpreting forecasts under conditions of deep uncertainty. We experimented with an iterative approach to human and artificial intelligence collaboration for this report. The primary drafting of the text was perfor...
| Authors | Gopal P. Sarma, Sunny D. Bhatt, Michael Jacob et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.CY |
| Published | 24 March 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 24 March 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.