Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \& Analysis]
Prediction markets are markets for trading claims on universal future events (e.g., presidential elections). Fueled by a meteoric surge with over \$50 billion trading volume, they have emerged as a promising forecasting mechanism, where their prices provide continuously updated signals of collective beliefs. In decentralized platforms (e.g., Polymarket), the prediction market lifecycle include six stages: market creation, token registration, trading, oracle interaction, dispute, and final settlement. However, comprehensively tracking this complete pipeline remains a major challenge, as the underlying data are severely fragmented across heterogeneous on-chain smart contracts and off-chain ...
| Authors | Huaiyu Jia, Luofeng Zhou, Wentao Zhang et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 22 April 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 25 September 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.