Trajectory-Aware Reliability Modeling of Democratic Systems
Failures in complex systems often emerge through gradual degradation and the propagation of stress across interacting components rather than through isolated shocks. Democratic systems exhibit similar dynamics, where weakening institutions can trigger cascading deterioration in related institutional structures. Traditional reliability and survival models typically estimate failure risk based on the current system state but do not explicitly capture how degradation propagates through institutional networks over time. This paper introduces a trajectory-aware reliability modeling framework based on Dynamic Causal Neural Autoregression (DCNAR). The framework first estimates a causal interacti...
| Authors | Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova, Michael Coppedge |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 22 April 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 15 May 2026 |
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