Forecast Sports Outcomes under Efficient Market Hypothesis: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Odds-Only and Generalised Linear Models
Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the limitations of existing conversion methods. Firstly, we propose an odds-only method to convert betting odds to probabilities without using historical data for model fitting. While existing odds-only methods, such as Multiplicative, Shin, and Power exist, they do not adjust for biases or relationships we found in our betting odds dataset, which consists of 90014 football matches across five different bookmakers. To overcome these limitations, our propose...
| Authors | Kaito Goto, Naoya Takeishi, Takehisa Yairi |
|---|---|
| Primary category | stat.ML |
| Published | 19 April 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 19 April 2026 |
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