Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents
Many high-stakes decisions depend on forecasts made before outcomes are known. In this future prediction setting, the central challenge is that public evidence evolves over time, while the main supervision signal arrives only after resolution: the realized outcome mainly assesses final correctness, offering only coarse guidance on what to track, what to verify, and which judgments to leave uncertain along the way. Our key observation is that revisiting the same unresolved question over time creates informative temporal contrasts across evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, exposing what earlier attempts missed before resolution and yielding a diagnostic signal we call the pre-resoluti...
| Authors | Chuyang Wei, Maohang Gao, Zhixin Han et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.AI |
| Published | 17 April 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 8 May 2026 |
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