PROXIMA: A Reliability Scoring Framework for Proxy Metrics in Online Controlled Experiments
Online A/B testing at scale relies on proxy metrics -- short-term, easily-measured signals used in place of slow-moving long-term outcomes. When the proxy-outcome relationship is heterogeneous across user segments, aggregate correlation can mask directional failures akin to Simpson's Paradox, leading to costly ship/no-ship errors. We introduce PROXIMA (Proxy Metric Validation Framework for Online Experiments), a lightweight diagnostic framework that scores proxy reliability through a composite of three complementary dimensions: normalised effect correlation, directional accuracy, and segment-level fragility rate. Unlike surrogate-index approaches that predict long-term treatment effects, ...
| Authors | Avinash Amudala |
|---|---|
| Primary category | stat.ME |
| Published | 15 April 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 15 April 2026 |
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