Simulation-Based Optimisation of Batting Order and Bowling Plans in T20 Cricket
This paper develops a unified Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework for optimising two recurring in-match decisions in T20 cricket, namely batting order selection and bowling plan assignment, directly in terms of win and defend probability rather than expected runs. A three-phase player profile engine (Powerplay, Middle, Death) with James-Stein shrinkage (a technique that blends a player's individual statistics toward the league average when their phase-specific data is sparse) is estimated from 1,161 IPL ball-by-ball records (2008-2025). Win/defend probabilities are evaluated using vectorised Monte Carlo simulation over N = 50,000 innings trajectories. Batting orders are evaluated by c...
| Authors | Tinniam V Ganesh |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 15 April 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 16 April 2026 |
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