Network Structure in UK Payment Flows: Evidence on Economic Interdependencies and Implications for Real-Time Measurement

Network analysis of inter-industry payment flows reveals structural economic relationships invisible to traditional bilateral measurement approaches, with significant implications for real-time economic monitoring. Analysing 532,346 UK payment records (2017--2024) across 89 industry sectors, we demonstrate that graph-theoretic features which include centrality measures and clustering coefficients improve payment flow forecasting by 8.8 percentage points beyond traditional time-series methods. Critically, network features prove most valuable during economic disruptions: during the COVID-19 pandemic, when traditional forecasting accuracy collapsed (R2} falling from 0.38 to 0.19), network-en...

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