Beyond Correlation: Refutation-Validated Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis for Explainable Energy Market Returns
This paper proposes a refutation-validated framework for aspect-based sentiment analysis in financial markets, addressing the limitations of correlational studies that cannot distinguish genuine associations from spurious ones. Using X data for the energy sector, we test whether aspect-level sentiment signals show robust, refutation-validated relationships with equity returns. Our pipeline combines net-ratio scoring with z-normalization, OLS with Newey West HAC errors, and refutation tests including placebo, random common cause, subset stability, and bootstrap. Across six energy tickers, only a few associations survive all checks, while renewables show aspect and horizon specific response...
| Authors | Wihan van der Heever, Keane Ong, Ranjan Satapathy et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.AI |
| Published | 23 March 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 23 March 2026 |
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