Competition-Aware CPC Forecasting with Near-Market Coverage
Cost-per-click (CPC) in paid search is an auction-generated outcome shaped by a competitive landscape that is only partially observable from any single advertiser's history. From 1.66 billion Google Ads log records for a concentrated car-rental market (2021-2023), we construct a weekly panel of 1,811 keyword series over 127 weeks (218,924 keyword-week observations) and build competition-aware proxies from keyword text, CPC trajectories, and geographic market structure. The design combines (i) semantic neighborhoods and a semantic keyword graph from pretrained transformer-based keyword representations, (ii) behavioral neighborhoods from Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) alignment of CPC trajector...
| Authors | Sebastian Frey, Edoardo Beccari, Maximilian Kranz et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 13 March 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 1 July 2026 |
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