CERES: A Probabilistic Early Warning System for Acute Food Insecurity
We present CERES (Calibrated Early-warning and Risk Estimation System), an automated probabilistic forecasting system for acute food insecurity. CERES generates 90-day ahead probability estimates of IPC Phase 3+ (Crisis), Phase 4+ (Emergency), and Phase 5 (Famine) conditions for 43 high-risk countries globally, updated weekly. The system fuses six data streams, precipitation anomalies (CHIRPS), vegetation indices (MODIS NDVI), conflict events (ACLED), IPC classifications, food consumption scores (WFP), and cereal price indices (FAO/WFP) - through a logistic scoring model with author-specified initial coefficients and parametric input-perturbation intervals (n=2,000 draws). In historical b...
| Authors | Tom Danny S. Pedersen |
|---|---|
| Primary category | stat.AP |
| Published | 10 March 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 10 March 2026 |
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