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Paper · arXiv

Efficient Credal Prediction through Decalibration

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently been proposed as a suitable approach to representing epistemic uncertainty. However, as with other approaches to epistemic uncertainty, training credal predictors is computationally complex and usually involves (re-)training an ensemble of models. The resulting computational complexity prevents their adoption for complex models such as foundation models and multi-modal systems. To address this problem, we propose an efficient method for credal prediction...

AuthorsPaul Hofman, Timo Löhr, Maximilian Muschalik et al.
Primary categorycs.LG
Published9 March 2026
Last updated at source9 March 2026
cs.LGstat.ML
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