Opponent State Inference Under Partial Observability: An HMM-POMDP Framework for 2026 Formula 1 Energy Strategy
The 2026 Formula 1 technical regulations introduce a fundamental change to energy strategy: under a 50/50 internal combustion engine / battery power split with unlimited regeneration and a driver-controlled Override Mode, the optimal energy deployment policy depends not only on a driver's own state but on the hidden state of rival cars. This creates a Partially Observable Stochastic Game that cannot be solved by single-agent optimisation methods. We present a tractable two-layer inference and decision framework. The first layer is a 40-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that infers a probability distribution over each rival's ERS charge level (four modes: H, M, L_harvest, L_derate), Override...
| Authors | Kalliopi Kleisarchaki |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.AI |
| Published | 1 March 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 15 May 2026 |
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