Dataset · Hugging Face

tsedbroo/kalshi-forecast-alpha

Name: kalshi-forecast-alpha
Creator: tsedbroo
License: cc-by-4.0
Keywords: task_categories:tabular-classification, task_categories:time-series-forecasting, license:cc-by-4.0, size_categories:100K<n<1M, format:parquet, modality:tabular, modality:text, library:datasets, library:dask, library:polars, library:mlcroissant, region:us, prediction-markets, kalshi, finance

Kalshi Forecast Alpha — Features, Predictions & Backtests A three-round study of whether ML can find mispriced Kalshi contracts, built on TrevorJS/kalshi-trades (CC-BY-4.0): 154.5M public trades + 17.5M market records, June 2021 – January 2026. Findings by round Round 1 — resolution forecasting vs. market price: NO edge. LightGBM/logreg on price/volume features lose to the raw market price on Brier/log-loss at T-1d/3d/7d pre-close cutoffs; every edge-trading sim… See the full description on the dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/tsedbroo/kalshi-forecast-alpha.

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Author / organization	tsedbroo
License (as declared)	cc-by-4.0
Downloads	472 (as reported by Hugging Face)
Likes	0
Created	13 September 2026
Last updated at source	13 September 2026

prediction-marketskalshifinanceforecasting

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