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Mapika/bookiebench

BookieBench Can a model's probabilities be trusted? BookieBench asks a model for many linked probabilities about one situation. It then checks four things: coherence: whether a bookie can Dutch-book the answers, whether they are invariant to option and evidence order, and whether updates follow a martingale; calibration against sampled gold; skill against exact posteriors, relative to the evidence-blind uniform_joint and to train-fitted priors; evidence sensitivity. Code… See the full description on the dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/Mapika/bookiebench.

Author / organizationMapika
License (as declared)cc-by-4.0
Downloads131 (as reported by Hugging Face)
Likes0
Created27 September 2026
Last updated at source27 September 2026
calibrationprobabilistic-reasoningcoherencedutch-bookbayesian-inferencebenchmark
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